Jefferies counts its own secondary deals, not the whole market

The record

On 10 February 2026, Jefferies Private Capital Advisory published its 2025 Global Secondary Market Review, stating that the global secondary market reached $240 billion in transaction volume in 2025, a 48 percent year-over-year increase it calls the largest year on record. The review splits that total into LP-led transactions ($125 billion, 52 percent of volume) and GP-led transactions, chiefly continuation vehicles ($115 billion, 48 percent, up 53 percent). It reports dedicated secondary capital of $327 billion, up 14 percent, and a combined total of approximately $477 billion once traditional LP capital and available leverage are included.

What the sources establish

Jefferies names itself as the source throughout and is explicit where it draws on someone else's data: a footnote states that a cited 14 percent share of sponsor-backed exit volume uses 'Dealogic estimates' for the denominator, while the GP-led volume in the numerator is Jefferies' own figure. Jefferies' own European market review, published 20 May 2026, states that Jefferies itself advised on a £2.3 billion continuation vehicle for Inflexion in 2025 and that its regional figures are estimates, using the phrase 'we estimate' for both a 2025 count of European GP-led deals and a longer-range forecast that the global market could reach $400 billion. That review also gives a different, later forecast than the February piece, which projected volume 'approaching $300 billion' over the following 12 to 24 months.

Scope and revision

Jefferies Private Capital Advisory is an active advisor on secondary transactions, including some of the largest deals its own review counts, so its volume figures describe activity Jefferies itself can observe and quantify through its advisory practice rather than a registry of every private secondary trade. Transactions arranged directly between buyer and seller, or through another advisor, are not necessarily captured the same way, which is why the topic's own framing treats this as an intermediary's volume report rather than the total market. The two Jefferies pieces cited here also carry two different forward estimates for the market's eventual size, published three months apart, which is a reminder that a forecast is not the same figure as the $240 billion historical total for 2025.

The decision in front of you

A founder, LP or analyst citing 'secondary market volume' should name Jefferies as the source, name 2025 as the period, and note that the figure reflects Jefferies-observed activity rather than a market census. Comparing this figure with another provider's estimate requires checking whether both count the same transaction types over the same period.

• Does the volume figure you are citing come from Jefferies' advisory-based estimate, or from a different provider with a different method?
• Is the number you are using a historical total for a stated year, or one of Jefferies' own forward-looking estimates?
• Where Jefferies blends its own count with another provider's data, such as Dealogic's exit-volume figure, is that blend disclosed in a footnote you have checked?

An intermediary's own review is strong evidence of the deals that intermediary observed, and weak evidence of a total market it did not itself measure.